Period 4Q12
Actual vs. Expectations
The FY12 results met our
expectations with the core net profit of RM1.31b coming in 5% below our
estimates and 9% below that of the market consensus. We believe that the
consensus number may not have been adjusted for the RM100m disposal gain
of Gas Malaysia Bhd (“GASMSIA”, OP; TP:
RM2.94) pursuant to its IPO exercise in 2Q12.
Dividends A
single-tier DPS of 35 sen was declared in 4Q12, taking the full-year NDPS to 50
sen, slightly higher than our projection of 48.5 sen.
Key Results Highlights
The 4Q12 net profit dipped 7% QoQ to
RM295.2m despite revenue rising 5% over the quarter to RM909.0m due to the higher
unrealised forex loss and other expenses. The improvement in the top line was
mainly due to its higher performance-based structure income, which was in line
with the higher export volume and prices for propane and butane.
On a YoY comparison,
the 3Q12 net income declined 14% from RM344.1m while revenue dipped 1% over the
period from RM921.1m. Apart from the higher unrealised forex loss and other
expenses, a lower gas processing revenue also contributed to the contraction in
earnings.
All in, the FY12
reported net earnings rose 4% YoY to RM1.41b as it included the RM100m GASMSIA
disposal gain while there was also a RM119.2m impairment of asset and inventory
in FY11. The FY12 revenue was down 2% to RM3.58b from RM3.66b due to the lower
revenue contribution from its gas processing unit.
Outlook Although the launch of the Melaka RGT has been
delayed to 2Q13, it will still be the new earnings kicker for FY13 while the
Kimanis IPP will take PETGAS’ FY14 earnings to new heights.
Changes To Forecasts We are keeping our
FY13-FY14 estimates unchanged for now.
Rating Maintain
MARKET PERFORM
Valuation Our price target is maintained at RM19.86/SOP share.
Risks The
delay in the commencement of Melaka RGT, Kimanis IPP and Lahad Datu RGT.
Source: Kenanga
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