Period 4Q12
Actual vs. Expectations
The FY12 full-year results came in within our expectation
but above that of the market consensus as the net profit of RM162.8m beat our
estimates and the consensus by 4% and 9% respectively.
Dividends A
final single-tier DPS of 7.69 sen has been declared in the quarter, bringing
the YTD Net DPS to 12.69 sen vs. our projection of 12.5 sen. This implies a
100% payout of its FY12 earnings.
Key Results Highlights
The 4Q12 net earnings rose 8% QoQ to RM45.5m
from RM42.0m previously while there was a 2% rise in the revenue to RM552.0m
from RM542.4m previously. The improvement in earnings was mainly attributable
to the improved gas volume sales.
On a YoY comparison,
the 4Q12 net profit contracted by 28% from RM63.2m due to a reversal for an
accrual of liability made in 4Q11. However, the 4Q12 revenue grew 4% from RM531.8m
on a higher sales volume. YTD, the 12M12
net profit declined 29% to RM162.8m from RM229.2m last year, although revenue
rose 6% over the period. The sharp contraction in earnings was due mainly to
the tariff revision effective earlier in 1 Jun 2011, which saw the profit
margin spread cut by almost half to RM2.02/mmbtu from RM3.95/mmbtu previously.
Outlook The new 40MMScdf gas supply from the Melaka RGT
in 2Q13 will be the earnings catalyst for the company, which will bring a c.10%
increase in the gas supply.
The subsequent
30MMScdf and 40MMScdf additional gas supplies from the same Melaka RGT in Jan
2014 and Jan 2015 respectively will ensure a consistent earnings growth
post-2013.
Changes To Forecasts
No changes to our FY13E-FY14E forecasts.
Rating MAINTAIN
OUTPERFORM
Valuation We
continue to like GASMSIA for its earnings quality and generous dividend payout,
which offer both growth and income attractions. We are maintaining our
OUTPERFORM call on the stock with an unchanged price target of RM2.94/DCF share.
Risks Should
the government decide to reduce the gas tariff, this will lead to a lower
margin spread and in turn, negatively impact the company’s profitability as was
seen previously in FY09.
Source: Kenanga
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