Period 4Q12/FY12
Actual vs. Expectations Axiata’s FY12 core PATMI of RM2.8b (+9.7% YoY)
was in line with expectations and accounted for 102.1% of ours as well as the
street’s full-year estimates. The higher core PATMI YoY was mainly due to the
1) higher turnover growth in its key OpCos; 2) higher associates contributions
and 3) a lower effective tax rate as a result of tax credits from both Celcom
and Dialog.
Dividends Proposed a final DPS of 15 sen and a surprise
special dividend of 12 sen, bringing the total full year DPS to 35 sen (vs. our
21 sen estimate).
Key Result Highlights
YoY, Axiata’s FY12 revenue rose 7.4% to
RM17.6b, driven by higher contributions from all its key operating companies
(OpCos). On a constant currency basis, the revenue would have grown 11.7%.
EBITDA grew 1.8% but its margin dipped by 130bps to 42.1% mainly due to a
one-off SIM tax in Robi along with the company’s aggressive network rollout
costs in Indonesia to accommodate data growth. The core PATMI, however,
increased by 9.7% to RM2.8b thanks to: 1) the higher operational contributions
from its key OpCos although this was partially offset by forex losses in
Indonesia and Sri Lanka, and 2) a lower effective tax rate (23.5% vs.24.2%).
QoQ, the turnover was
lower by 2.2% while the core PATMI dipped by 19.6% as a result of the higher operational
costs in both XL (higher interconnect fees) and Robi (one-off SIM tax). The
EBITDA margin improved to 41.6% vs. 40.6% in 3Q12.
Celcom continued to
perform with its FY12 revenue surging by 7% YoY to RM7.7b, although this was at
a lower normalised EBITDA margin of 44.6% vs. 45.2% in FY11. Broadband grew 20%
YoY to RM927m with the total data (including SMS) and voice revenue growing 10%
and 5% YoY to RM2.7b and RM6.8b respectively.
Outlook Axiata
has introduced its FY13 KPIs, where the group targets to achieve revenue and
EBITDA annual growth rates of 7.6% and 0.2% respectively.
Change to Forecasts We have raised our FY13 (1.9%) and FY14 (2.4%)
core PATMIs after fine-tuning and lowering our EBITDA assumptions as well as
interest cost.
Rating Maintain MARKET PERFORM
Valuation Raised our Axiata TP to RM6.86 (from RM6.78 previously),
which is based on a targeted EV/forward EBITDA of 8.7x, implying an unchanged
+2SD from the mean.
Risks Regulation risks in its overseas ventures.
Source: Kenanga
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