Tuesday 9 October 2012

SKP Resources - Board This Dividend Train


We  initiate  coverage  on  SKP  Resources  (SKPRES)  with  a  BUY  recommendation, valuing the stock at RM0.54 based on 9.0x CY13 EPS, in line with the plastic industry average. The integrated plastic manufacturer has evolved into a leading local „one-stop solution centre‟ catering to a broad global clientele. We like the company‟s strong  balance  sheet  and  earnings  growth,  as  well  as  appealing  valuation.  This  is backed by a dividend yield of 7.0% for FY13 and 8.6% for FY14.

Sticky  with  global  winners.  We  initiate  coverage  on  SKPRES  with  a  BUY  and  FV  of RM0.54.  This  locally-based  integrated plastic  manufacturer  is  currently  ramping  up capacity,  which  should  boost  sales  and  earnings  CAGRs  of  25%  and  23.8%  respectively for  FY12-14,  underpinned  by  more  orders  from  existing  clients.  We  believe that its „one-stop solution‟ concept should drive long-term earnings.

Outsourcing by MNCs fuels growth. We expect the growing trend in outsourcing among multinational  corporations  (MNCs)  to  fuel SKPRES‟s  growth  moving  forward.  The company‟s success in  securing  outsourcing  contracts  is  supported  mainly  by  its  ability  to meet  clients‟  stringent  quality  requirements,  just-in-time  supply  of  materials  and  cost controls. We  expect  more  substantial orders  from  its  existing  clients,  especially  Dyson,  for which the outlook is robust, propelled by the latter‟s aggressive expansion plan and resilient growth in the markets it is in.

Alluring  dividend  yield  of  >7%.  Armed  with  its  strong  coffers  (zero  borrowings  and  net cash  of  8  sen  per  share  as  of  end-June  2012),  the  company  has  consistently  paid dividends.  We  believe  there  is  potential  for  the  group  to  enhance  its  dividend  payout  in view of its financial capability. Management has a policy of paying out 50% of its profits as dividend going forward, which will translate into lucrative dividend yields of 7.0% for FY13 and 8.6% for FY14, based on our earnings estimates.

RM0.54  FV  represents  47.9%  upside  potential. We apply a 9.0x CY13 PE to SKPRES‟ earnings,  which is  in  line  with  the  industry  average.  Our  FV  does  not  include  the  potential dilution  effect  of  its  warrants,  which  are  trading  at  a  49.3% premium  to  the  exercise  price. This  means  that  warrant  holders  are  unlikely  to  convert  the  warrants  at  this  point  of  time. Nonetheless,  assuming  that  all  the  warrants  are  converted  into  ordinary  shares,  our  FV would be diluted to RM0.42.
INVESTMENT THESIS
Benefiting from outsourcing by MNCs. The growing trend in outsourcing by MNCs is expected to fuel SKPRES‟ growth moving forward. The company‟s ability to secure outsourcing contracts is mainly due to its ability to meet customers‟ strict quality requirements and timely delivery at competitive cost. Some of its notable clients are Dyson, Fujitsu, Pioneer, Sharp, Sony and Panasonic. 
Riding on Dyson‟s expansion. While  Dyson  has  been  a  loyal  customer  since  2002,  the  milestone  in 2009 was the move by SKPRES to go up the value chain by migrating to a full-assembly manufacturer from sub-assembling. This contributed to its strong revenue CAGR of 33.4% from FY09-12. In addition, the company was  appointed as one of Dyson‟s tier 1 manufacturers in Malaysia in 2010. We see more substantial  orders  from  Dyson  in  the  future,  buoyed  by the company‟s plans to launch in China in November  this  year.  Elsewhere,  we  believe  that  SKPRES  had  recently  secured  another  contract  to manufacture a new product line for Dyson (this was announced in the press but management has yet to confirm the contract). This contract, if factored in, may push up our FY13/14 estimates.
Rising  orders  from  existing  customers,  new  customers  to  mitigate  concentration  risk.  While  the company‟s customer concentration risk (>55% of SKPRES‟ revenue was contributed by Dyson alone in FY12  as  shown  in  Figure  4)  is  of  concern,  we  understand  that  management  has  been  in  talks  with potential customers for potential co-operative efforts. Management  has guided that this is not a straight forward  process  as  the  qualifying  period  could  take  some  time  but  once  the  company  is  appointed,  it would  be  difficult  for  the  client  to  switch  suppliers  in  view  of  the  stringent  due  diligence  involved. Management hopes to maintain Dyson‟s revenue contribution  at  about  50%-55%  of  total  revenue  by growing its business with other customers.
Upcoming  plant  to  beef  up  production  capacity  by  40%.  Management  intends  to  spend  RM30m  in the  next  two  years  to  buy  land,  construct  a  new  plant  and  install  new  machinery  to  increase  its manufacturing  capacity  by  some  40%.  This  is  to  cater  for  the  new  contract  it  secured  recently  from  an existing client. The new plant is expected to be completed in 2H13. We have not factored in any potential earnings  growth  from  this  plant  for  FY13  and  FY14  as  we  anticipate  that  it  will  only  start  production towards end-1Q14. We are of the view that if the growth momentum of its clients is sustainable, SKPRES should continue to register double digit earnings growth in FY15.
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
Off to a good start in FY13. SKPRES‟ 1QFY13 revenue and net profit soared 106.9% y-o-y and 116.9% y-o-y  respectively.  Compared  to  its  4QFY12  results,  this  implies  that  the company‟s  revenue  and earnings are not one-off as the group made RM12.0m in 4QFY12 on the back of revenue of RM127.6m. We  anticipate  that  its  2QFY13  results  will  be  similar  to  1QFY13  as  management  has  guided  that  its orders from customers are still strong.
 
Positive outlook. We are projecting for 2-year earnings CAGR of 23.7% from FY12-14f on sales CAGR of 25.0% for SKPRES. The strong double-digit growth is mainly attributable to i) Dyson‟s expansion into China,  which  will  boost  orders,  and  ii)  a  higher  utilization  rate  for  its  manufacturing  facility  (currently  at 75%). Management has guided that its orders are stable
Margin slide to stabilize. We expect SKPRES‟ blended gross margin and net margin to stabilize in the next  three  years  at  16.5%-17.0%  and  8.5%-9.0%  respectively.  The  company  will  be  able  to  maintain margins  at  these  levels,  backed  by  its  cost-plus  model  as  the  group  reviews  its  average  selling  prices (ASPs) with its clients on a monthly basis. 
Working  capital  management  intact.  We  expect  the  company‟s cash  conversion  cycle  to  shorten slightly over time, largely driven by shorter receivable turnover days.  As SKPRES‟ customers are mostly leading international brands, we expect its default risk to be low.
Healthy  balance  sheet,  positive  free  cash  flow  since  FY08.  SKPRES‟ retained earnings stood  at RM101.9m  as  at  1QFY13  while  cash  and  bank  balances  totaled  RM71.6m.  The  company  has  no borrowings. In view of its strong net cash position in 1QFY13, we believe that the group would be able to fund  its  expansion  plans  without  borrowing.  The  group  intends  to  spend  some  RM30m  over  the  two years to expand its production facility to cater for a new product line from an existing customer.

Attractive dividend yield of >7%. Armed with its strong coffers (zero borrowings and net cash per share of 8 sen per share as at end-June 2012), the company has consistently paid out dividends and has been raising its dividend in the past 2 financial years.  We see potential for the group to increase its dividend payout policy given its financial capability. Management has set a policy of paying of 50% of its profits as dividend, which will translate into a lucrative dividend yield of 7.0% for FY13 and 8.6% in FY14, based on our earnings estimates. 
VALUATION AND RECOMMENDATION
Undertaking bonus and warrants issue to enhance liquidity. In June this year, SKPRES carried out a bonus  issue  involving  the  issuance  of  300m  new  ordinary  shares  on  the  basis  of  one  bonus  share  for every  two  existing  ordinary  shares,  as  well  as  issued  180m  warrants  the  following  month.  These warrants, which expire in 27 June 2017, have an exercise price of RM0.45. The company currently has 900m shares outstanding.
 
RM0.54 FV. We arrive at a FV of RM0.54 based on PE valuation. We have assigned a target multiple of 9.0x  CY13  PE,  which  is  in  line  with  the  industry  average  (benchmarked  against  VS  Industries,  Haitian International,  Scientex  and  GW  Plastic).  We  find  the  stock  undervalued  and  deserves  to  trade  at  a premium  to  its  historical  average  PE  of  6.0x  due  to  its:  i)  strong  earnings  growth  prospects,  ii)  strong PEG compared to its peers, iii) generous dividend payout offering a yield of 7.0% for FY13 and 8.6% for FY14, and iv) superior ROE compared to its peers.
FV excludes dilution effect of warrants. Our FV does not include the potential dilution arising from its warrants,  which  are  trading  at  a  49.3%  premium  to  the  exercise  price.  Hence  it  is  unlikely  that warrantholders will convert the warrants anytime soon. Nonetheless, assuming that all the warrants are converted into ordinary shares, our FV would be diluted to RM0.42.
WHERE WE HAVE CONCERNS
Generic  risks  related  to  business  concentration  on  specific  clients.  Given  that  the  top  customer Dyson  alone  contribute to some 55% of the group‟s FY12 revenue, the company‟s earnings could be adversely  affected,  if  any  of  its  key  customers  decide  to  award  contracts  to  other  manufacturers. Nonetheless, management is currently signing up new customers to reduce the dependency on one key customer.  

Macro uncertainty. 
Consumer spending could recover at a slower-than-expected pace in light of global macro uncertainty, and negatively impact its key customer‟s (Dyson) growth.  In  a  press  interview recently,  Dyson‟s management said  it  remains  positive  on  its  business  as  its  sales  remain  resilient  in Europe despite the financial crisis in that region and even enjoyed strong growth in recession-hit Spain. Also, Dyson is launching its products in China in November and so we expect SKPRES to benefit from its key customer‟s expansion into that country.

Competition
. SKPRES faces most competition from local and Singapore manufacturers especially  from Singapore-based Meiban group and Malaysia-based V.S Industry. Both are also contract manufacturers for  Dyson  but  for  other  products.  That  said,  the  company‟s  ability  to  meet  its  clients‟  stringent requirements  in  quality  standards,  just-in-time  supply  of  materials  and  cost  controls  has  enabled  it  to earn  the  trust  and  respect  of  major  companies.  Coupled  with  its  strong  balance  sheet,  SKPRES  could easily expand its production capacity to cater for its client‟s orders.
Dependence key management personnel. SKPRES is mainly led by the Dato‟ Gan Kim Huat and his family members and their expertise and business strategies were essential for the company‟s growth and development. Hence, the company‟s future prospects could be adversely impacted if they are no longer with the company although there is a strong management team currently in place.
 
Consistency  of  product  quality.  
While  most  MNCs  outsource  their  production  to  contract manufacturers  for  cost  minimization  and  convenience,  quality  remains  a  key  concern.  Hence  SKPRES will  need  to  continuously  invest  in  skilled  employees  and  quality  control  processes  to  ensure  that  the quality of its products remain compliant.   

Technology advancement. 
SKPRES  will need to ensure that its technology remains competitive at all times  to  retain  the  high  barriers  of  entry  for  its  competitors.  Currently,  the  company  employs  a  diverse pool of experienced professionals from various engineering disciplines who are capable of providing all-in-one  in-house full service engineering consultation to cater for its client‟s individual specifications and requirements.
APPENDICES
A BRIEF BACKGROUND

SKPRES  at  a  glance.  
Listed  in  2003,  SKPRES  is  an  integrated  plastic  manufacturer  that  is  principally involved in the manufacturing of plastic parts and components, contract manufacturing, precision mould making,  the  subassembly  of  electronic  and  electrical  equipment  and  other  secondary  processes.  With over  three  decades  of  experience  in  the  electrical  and  electronic  industry,  SKPRES  has  since  evolved into a leading plastic manufacturer and is recognized as a leading „one-stop solution centre‟ that caters to a broad clientele globally.
Wide  variety  of  product  offerings.  SKPRES  produces  and  provides  a  wide  range  of  products  and services  to  its  customers  and  its  products.  Some  examples  of  its  product  offerings  are  as  shown  in Figures 4-11. Besides producing these products, SKPRES diversified into downstream services in 2009 by providing assembly facilities as part of its „one-stop solution centre‟ concept while offering full service engineering  consultation  and  support  from  the  earliest  stages  of  conceptual  product  design.  We understand that LCD TVs and the vacuum cleaner are the key contributors to SKPRES‟s revenue.
More about its production facilities. SKPRES has four manufacturing operations strategically located in Johor – three in Batu Pahat and one in Johor Bahru, totaling approximately 655,840 square feet (as of March 2012). The plants‟ strategic locations, near the Senai Airport, Port of Tanjung Pelepas in Gelang Patah and Johor Port in Pasir Gudang and Singapore (Changi Airport and Port of Singapore Authority in Tanjung  Pagar),  provide  the  group  with  the  ease  of  exporting  its  products.  It  will  be  commencing  its marketing  and  engineering  support  centres in Singapore by 4Q12. We understand that the group‟s current utilization rate for its plants stands at some 75%.

Multiple  awards  in  hand.  SKPRES  is  fully  committed  to  deliver  products  and  services  of  world  class standards  and  quality.  Its  untiring  continuous  commitment  to  constantly  upgrade,  keeping  abreast  with the technological advancement has achieved the ISO 9002 status in 1997.
More  about  its  production  process.  The  production  process  is  a  quality-intensive  one, and  SKPRES markets itself as a one-stop solution centre. Once a client hands over a product drawing, SKPRES takes care of everything from prototyping to the production of the final product. The first step  is to design the tooling, which is the part which manufactures the plastic component itself. Then the plastic components are  prototyped  and  adjustments  are  made  depending  on  the  results. When  the  tooling  and  prototyping are complete, plastic injection takes place – the process by which a machine injects liquid resin into the mould. Once the resin cools down, it solidifies into a plastic component part which is spray-painted and has logos added on.
DYSON IN A NUTSHELL 
 
The  Dyson  story.  Dyson  was  founded  by  Sir  James  Dyson  and  is  a  UK-based  company  that  designs and manufactures vacuum cleaners, hand dryers, bladeless fans and heaters. It is the world‟s leading company in the vacuum cleaner industry commanding about 23% in the global vacuum cleaners market and exports its machines to more than 45 countries. The uniqueness of Dyson‟s vacuum cleaner lies with its “Root Cyclone” technology that uses powerful centrifugal forces to separate dust from the air. In 2002, Dyson  transferred  its  vacuum  cleaner  production  to  Malaysia  and  a  year  later,  its  washing  machine production. Today, Dyson is a leader in most of the markets it is present in especially UK (>40% market share), US (>27% market share) and Japan (>10% market share behind Panasonic and Hitachi).
Recorded  a  bumper  year  in  2011.  Resilient  growth  in  developed  markets  helped  Dyson  reach  an annual turnover of GBP1bn (RM5bn) for the first time in 2011. As  Dyson‟s products are targeted to the high-end  market  and  not  the  price-sensitive  market,  sales  are  expected  to  remain  resilient  despite  the global macro uncertainty, benefiting SKPRES‟s order flow.

On a hiring spree. As innovation has always been the cornerstone of the firm‟s success, Dyson shows no sign of slowing down its recruiting activities. The company intends to hire 200 engineers of which 150 will be young graduates. We view this as a testament to the company‟s mission to continue growing its business via innovation.

Expanding  to  China  in  Nov  2012.  Dyson  is  planning  to  launch  its  products  officially  in  China  in  Nov 2012, tapping on the rich market segment in the country. We opine that the company‟s products would do  very  well  in  the  country  as  consumers  in  China  are  able  to  afford  its  products  which  cost  between USD300-USD500 on average.
SKPRES‟S DIRECTORS‟ PROFILE 
 
Dato‟ Gan Kim Huat. Dato'  Gan  Kim  Huat,  a  Malaysian,  aged  65,  is  the  Executive  Chairman  and Managing Director of SKPRES. He was appointed to the Board on 3 Dec 2002. Dato‟ Gan has over 30 years of experience in plastics injection moulding and is a well-known entrepreneur in the local plastics industry  due  to  his  wide  knowledge  of  plastics  manufacturing  and  network  of  contacts  in  the  industry. Dato'  Gan  has  also  cultivated  excellent  relationships  with  the  customers  of  the  Group.  He  is  also  an Executive  Chairman  of  Tecnic  Group,  a  company  involved  in  the  manufacturing  of  plastic  parts  for
households and automobile industry. Dato' Gan is the father of Mr. Gan Poh San and Ms. Gan Poh Ling, the Executive Directors of SKPRES.

Gan  Poh  San.  Mr.  Gan  Poh  San,  a  Malaysian,  aged  37,  was  appointed  as  an  Executive  Director  of
SKPRES on 3  Dec  2002.  Mr.  Gan  received  his  Bachelor of  Arts  (Honours)  majoring  in  Accounting and
Finance  from  Staffordshire  University  and  further  obtained  his  MSc  in  Finance  from  Imperial  College
(Management  School),  United  Kingdom  in  1998.  In  1998,  he  joined  Syarikat  Sin  Kwang  Plastic
Industries, a wholly-owned subsidiary of SKPRES, as a management trainee and was subsequently sent
to  Kai  Japanese  School  and  Nissei  Plastics  School  in  Japan  to  study  Japanese  language  and  plastic
engineering  respectively.  His  proficiency  in  speaking  Japanese  language  enables  him  to  communicate
easily with the Group's Japanese customers. Mr. Gan is also an Executive Director of Tecnic Group. He
is the son of Dato' Gan and the brother of Ms. Gan Poh Ling.
 
Gan  Poh  Ling.  Ms.  Gan  Poh  Ling,  a  Malaysian,  aged  38,  was  appointed  as  a  Non-Independent  Non-Executive Director of SKPRES on 31 Dec 2004. She was re-designated as an Executive Director on 28 Nov  2006.  Ms.  Gan  holds  a  Bachelor  of  Arts  Degree  (Honours)  in  Business  Administration  from  South Bank University, London, UK and further graduated with a Master of Science in Information Management and  Finance  from  the  University  of  Westminister,  London,  UK.  She  started  her  career  with  an  IT company,  Lexcom  Networks  in  London  as  Marketing  Executive  from  2002  to  2004.  Ms.  Gan  is  the daughter of Dato' Gan and the sister of Mr. Gan Poh San.

Chia Choong Kim. Mr. Chia Choong Kim, a Singaporean, aged 64, was appointed as Executive Director of  SKPRES  on  3  Dec  2002.  Mr.  Chia  graduated  from  the  Singapore  Polytechnic  with  a  Diploma  in Rubber  and  Plastics  Technology  in  1969.  He  was  a  Chemist  with  Malaysia  Rubber  Product  Singapore Pte  Ltd  from  1972  to  1975  prior  to  joining  Asahi  Electronic  Singapore.  He  was  sent  to  Japan  Nissei Plastics  Injection  Machine  Plant  in  Sakaki-Machi,  Nagano  Prefecture  for  training  in  thermoplastic injection  moulding  for  both  commodity  and  engineering  plastic  parts.  In  1990,  he  was  promoted  to General Manager of Asahi Electronic Singapore. He joined Syarikat Sin Kwang Plastic Industries in 1995 as  the  General  Manager  to  oversee  its  overall  operations.  His  specialty  in  plastics  injection  moulding parts and proficiency in Japanese language has strengthened the Group's relationship with the Japanese multi-national corporations.

Koh  Chin  Koon.  Mr.  Koh  Chin  Koon,  a  Malaysian,  aged  42,  was  appointed  as  an  Independent  Non-Executive Director of SKPRES on 4 Mar 2005. Mr. Koh completed his Bachelor Degree in University of Malaya in year 1995. He was employed by Arthur Andersen & Co as a Tax Assistant after he completed his  Bachelor  Degree  and  promoted  as  a  Tax  Experience  Senior  during  the  employment.  He  left  Arthur Andersen & Co and joined Chin & Co as a Tax Manager in Feb 2001. After having obtained a wide range of  experience  from  his  past  employment  involved  in  advising  clients  from  private  and  public  listed companies as well as quasi government organizations, he set up Koh & Siow Management Services in May 2001. Mr. Koh is also a Director of BP Plastics Holding.

Koh  Song  Heng.  Mr.  Koh  Song  Heng,  a  Malaysian,  aged  55,  was  appointed  as  a  Non-Independent Non-Executive  Director  of  SKPRES  on  29  Feb  2008.  He  was  re-designated  as  an  Independent  Non-Executive  Director  on  2  Jul  2012.  Mr.  Koh  graduated  with  a  Bachelor  of  Art  Degree  with  Honours, majoring in Law & Economic disciplines in Modern Studies in 1982. He has over 22 years of experience in management and administration of Local and Export Products development.
Chew  Teck  Cheng.  Mr.  Chew  Teck  Cheng,  a  Malaysian,  aged  56,  was  appointed  as  an  Independent Non-Executive Director of SKPRES on 30 Nov 2007. Mr. Chew graduated with a Diploma in Commerce (Financial Studies) from Tunku Abdul Rahman College. He is an associate member of the Association of Chartered  Certified  Accountants  in  1983  and  a  member  of  the  Malaysian  Institute  of  Accountants (Chartered  Accountant)  in  1984.  He  is  also  a  fellow  member  of  the  Association  of  Chartered  Certified Accountants  since  1988.  He  has  been  practising  as  a  Chartered  Accountant  and  approved  company auditor since 1986 under Messrs. T. C. Chew & Co.
Source: OSK

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