- Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) has released the country’s
palm oil statistics for September 2012. Palm oil stocks rose 17.4% from 2.11mil
tonnes as at end-August to 2.48mil tonnes as at end-September 2012. The inventory
of 2.48mil tonnes was within the consensus estimate of 2.43mil tonnes for
September.
- The MoM increase in palm oil inventory was due to a robust
recovery in palm oil production in September after the Hari Raya festive and
fasting season in August. Exports of palm oil improved MoM in September,
allaying concerns that demand has slowed.
- The build-up in palm oil inventory in September was mainly
in crude form and not processed. Inventory of CPO rose 34.9% MoM in September
in contrast to a 5.1% MoM fall in the inventory of processed palm oil.
- Most of the palm oil inventory was held in Sarawak and
Peninsular Malaysia, which saw a 20% to 26% MoM increase in stocks in
September. Nevertheless, with the roll-out of the tax-free CPO export quota and
proposed lowering of the export tax rate for CPO, inventory of palm oil in
crude form should ease in the coming months.
- Average CPO price was RM3,083/tonne from January to
September 2012. This was 8.6% lower than the average price of RM3,375/tonne
recorded in the same period last year. Average CPO price was RM2,852/tonne in
3Q2012, 11.1% weaker than the average of RM3,208/tonne achieved in 2Q2012.
- Based on the latest prices, the disparity between CPO and
soybean oil is roughly 28% or US$318/tonne. On average, CPO was 24.5% cheaper
than soybean oil in September. In the past five years, the average price
discount between the two commodities was 16.7%.
- Palm oil production in Malaysia climbed by a healthy 20.4%
MoM to 2mil tonnes in September. In spite of this, palm oil output still
declined 5% in the nine months of the year compared to the same period last
year. Comparing 3Q2012 against 2Q2012, palm oil output was 29.7% higher.
- Exports of palm oil from Malaysia expanded 4.5% MoM to
1.51mil tonnes in September. This was different from the flattish shipment
numbers reported by cargo surveyors. In the nine months of the year, exports
totalled 12.4mil tonnes, 3.4% lower than last year.
- Exports of palm oil to China rose 20.9% MoM in September
while India bought 15.5% more palm oil. Positive demand from China and India
helped compensate for a 23.9% MoM fall in exports to the US.
- Stock usage increased from 1.47x in August to 1.65x in
September underpinned by the rise in inventory.
- We maintain a positive stance on the plantation sector. We
reckon that CPO prices would continue to recover on the back of supportive
measures to be implemented by the government. Additionally, the huge price
disparity between CPO and soybean oil should also continue to aid the
improvement in CPO prices.
Source: AmeSecurities
No comments:
Post a Comment