Monday 8 October 2012

Kenanga - Macro Bits - 8 Oct 2012


Asia 
Bank Of Japan Holds Rates, But Cuts Economic Assessment. The Bank of Japan kept monetary settings unchanged on Friday after having loosened policy only last month, but it cut  its assessment of the economy due to weakening exports and production. As widely expected, the central bank maintained its key policy rate in a range of zero to 0.1 % by a unanimous vote, and held off on easing monetary policy further. (Reuters) 

China Golden Week Retail Sales Growth Dips To 15%. China's retail sales growth slowed during the Golden Week holiday, local media said on Sunday, providing a snapshot of increasingly important sources of demand in the world's  second-largest economy. Overall retail sales revenue grew 15 % to hit 800.6 billion yuan ($127.4 billion) during the National Day holiday, which coincided with the Mid-Autumn Festival to provide a rare eight-day break, China's state television China Central Television said. That marked a cooldown from the 17.5 % growth last year during a seven-day holiday. No further details were given. (Reuters)

USA
US Unemployment Rate Hits Obama-Era Low. The US unemployment rate fell last month to its lowest rate since January 2009, figures from the Department of Labor have shown, surprising analysts who had been expecting a small  rise. Last month's rate came in at 7.8%, down from 8.1% in August. The latest numbers also showed that the US economy added a further 114,000 jobs in September, beating expectations. The presidential candidates sparred over the data, which is seen as a key issue for November's elections. (BBC)

Consumer Borrowing Grows By Most In 3 Months. Americans boosted their borrowing in August by the largest amount in three months with strong gains in the category that covers auto and student loans and in credit card debt. Total consumer borrowing increased $18.1 billion in August compared to July, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. In July, consumer borrowing had fallen for the first time in nearly a year. (AFP)

CBO Puts 2012 Deficit At $1.1 Trillion. A new estimate puts the deficit for the just-completed 2012 budget year at $1.1 trillion, the fourth straight year of trillion dollar deficits on President Barack Obama's watch. The result was a slight improvement from the 2011 deficit of $1.3 trillion The administration will release the official deficit numbers around mid-October, but they should line up closely with the CBO estimate, which showed that the government borrowed 31 cents for every dollar it spent. (Reuters)

Europe
Some Progress Seen As Greek Austerity Talks Continue. Greece will continue talks with international lenders next week on new austerity measures for the debt-ridden country to clinch its next loan tranche, the finance minister said on Saturday, with both sides saying progress had been made. Earlier on Saturday, a senior Greek government official said the sides needed another two weeks to agree a pact on almost 12 billion euros of new savings to secure the next tranche of some 31.5 billion euros ($41.14 billion) in urgently needed loans. Without it, Greece says it will run out of money at the end of November. (Reuters)

David Cameron 'Would Veto' EU Budget. Prime Minister David Cameron has said he would veto a new European Union budget "if necessary". The EU is beginning negotiations on its next budget for 2014 to 2020. Mr Cameron also told the BBC that in the longer term the EU should have two different budgets - one for countries in the eurozone and one for those outside the single currency. (BBC)

UK: Businesses 'Lack Trust' In Banks. Businesses' trust in banks and other financial institutions is falling, according to a survey from the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). Half of the 1,560 businesses questioned said they mistrust banks and building societies, while 38% said they trust them less than a year ago. Banks and building societies remain the main source of finance for firms. Meanwhile, a separate survey revealed businesses' hiring intentions fell to a 28-month low in September. (BBC)

UK Consumer Spending 'Rose In September'. Shoppers stocking up on winter clothing helped consumer spending to rise at its fastest rate for more than three years last month, a survey has said. Visa Europe's UK expenditure index found that sales rose 3% in September, the biggest rise since May 2009. As well as clothing sales, consumers were spending more in hotels and restaurants, the survey found. Total sales in the week to 29 September were up 26.5% from the same period last year, with trading also boosted by shoppers buying new coats and shoes for the coming winter. (BBC)

Currencies
Dollar Pares Losses After Good Jobs Report. The dollar ended Friday with a small loss after a report showed the U.S. unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped below 8% and the economy added more jobs than previously reported in prior months. The ICE dollar index, which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of six major currencies, fell to 79.350, coming off its lows and from 79.376 in North American trade late Thursday. For the week, it’s lost 0.7%. The euro bought $1.3031, from $1.3001 prior to the data and $1.3015 on Thursday. The shared currency gained 1.3% this week. The U.S. dollar pared losses to 0.2% to buy 97.92 Canadian cents. The dollar rose to buy 78.64 Japanese yen, from ¥78.43 on Thursday. The British pound turned down to $1.6141 versus $1.6188 on Thursday. The Australian dollar turned down to $1.0176, from $1.0243. (Market Watch) 


Commodities
Oil Dips As Weak Global Economy Offsets Rise In U.S. Jobs. Oil prices fell in volatile trading on Friday and posted weekly losses as a fragile global economy and uncertainty about Europe's debt crisis offset support from a better-than-expected U.S. employment report. Brent November crude fell 56 cents to settle at $112.02 a barrel on Friday, recovering after falling to $110.54. For the week, Brent slipped 37 cents, or 0.33 %. Brent fell back below the 50-day moving average of $112.38 and the 200-day moving average of $112.12, technical levels closely monitored by chart-watching traders. U.S. November crude fell $1.83  to settle at $89.88, back below the 100-day moving average of $89.91, and having dropped as low as $89.01. Brent's premium to U.S. crude increased to $22.14 based on settlements. (Reuters)

Gold Drops From 11-Month High After US Payrolls. Gold hit an 11-month high early on Friday then retreated to end lower after bullion's appeal as an inflation hedge was dampened by a surprising drop in U.S. unemployment rate to a four-year low. Spot gold was down 0.6 % at $1,777.19 an ounce by 2:19 p.m. EDT (1819 GMT), having earlier hit $1,795.69 the highest price since Nov. 9, 2011. Silver fell 1.5 % to $34.42 an ounce. Spot platinum eased 0.3 % on the day at $1,703.49 an ounce, after reaching a sevenmonth high earlier in the session. The metal still posted a weekly rise of more than 2%. Spot palladium was down 1.2 % to $660.50 an ounce. (Reuters)

Source: Kenanga 

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