- We
maintain our BUY call on SapuraKencana Petroleum (SapuraKencana), with an
unchanged fair value of RM2.68/share, pegged to a rolled forward FY14F PE of
18x – close to the average for oil & gas stocks with a market capitalisation
of over RM1bil.
- SapuraKencana
has secured a AUD15mil (RM50mil) charter contract with PTTEP Australasia
(Ashmore Cartier) Pty Ltd to provide one of its construction vessels named
Normand Clough, which will be used to
support the hook-up and commissioning activities
of the Montara Development Project.
- We
maintain SapuraKencana’s FY13F-15F earnings as the new Australian contracts are
within our expectations, which incorporate new order assumptions of
RM5bil-RM7bil annually.
- The
contract, commencing early October 2012, will only encompass three months
following Norman Clough’s current assignment in Sakhalin. Norman Clough was one
of the three construction vessels which SapuraCrest Petroleum acquired from
Australia-listed Clough Ltd in August last year.
- The
Montara field is located approximately 700km west of Darwin in the Timor Sea,
off the coast of Northern Australia. Back in 2009, Clough was involved in the
installation of offshore facilities was interrupted by a fire on the West Atlas
rig and oil spill.
- Compared
with the recent Murphy contracts, this contract is relatively small and will
not significantly raise SapuraKencana’s order book of RM15.6bil – the largest
in the country vis-a-vis Bumi Armada’s RM10bil. Accounting for 2.5x of
SapuraKencana’s CY12F merged revenues, earnings for the next two years are
already locked-in.
- But we
expect fresh contracts to materialise this year – two wellhead platforms from
the Bunga Dahlia and Teratai fields in Blocks 301 & 302, a central
processing platform and multiple wellhead platforms from the North Malay gas
basin cluster development. Beginning this year, we estimate that the group has
secured fresh order contracts worth RM2.6bil (including the RM1.3bil extension
of the Pan-Malaysian contract to install pipelines and facilities), vs. our
FY12F new order assumption of RM5bil.
- We
continue to be positive on SapuraKencana as its estimated tender book of
RM10bil will continue to drive the group’s earnings momentum, underpinned by
asset expansion from the delivery of two deepwater-capable construction vessels with DP 3 capability in late-2013 to
early-2014, together with three flexible pipe-lay Petrobras vessels, one tender
rig and semi-tender rig at end-2014.
- SapuraKencana’s
valuations are compelling at an FY14F PE of 17x compared with SapuraCrest’s
peak of 29x back in 2007.The likely inclusion of the stock in the FBMKLCI
later this year could draw further
foreign institutional support.
Source: AmeSecurities
No comments:
Post a Comment