Period 3Q12
Actual vs. Expectations
9M12 net profit (NP)
of RM298m was slightly below the street’s estimate and our forecast of RM414m
(72%) and RM421m (71%), respectively.
The 9M12’s NP
contribution of 71% was below the same period of the past two financial years by
9ppt for both 9M10 and 9M11.
Dividends A
second interim single tier dividend of 6 sen per share has been declared,
amounting to a total DPS of 16 sen for FY12. This DPS has actually exceeded our
estimate of 15 sen, representing a dividend yield of 3%.
Key Result Highlights
YoY, 9M12 revenue
increased 18% on the back of strong same-store sales growth (SSSG) of 7.0%,
9.5%, 9.8% and 11.8% from China, Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam
respectively.
There was also a
marginal contribution by the new income streams coming from the Indonesia operation
(since June 2011) and from its first self-owned and managed retail mall (KL
Festival City since Oct 2011).
The strong sales have
also driven a YoY growth of 8% in NP for 9M12.
3Q12 sales performance was flat QoQ, mainly due to the slower regional
growth, especially China and Vietnam and the early arrival of the Chinese New
Year with NP declining by 3%.
Outlook Better
earnings prospect is expected on the back of its new store expansion plan with
the management’s vision to maintain the SSSG (7-9% for China, 8-10% for
Malaysia, 10% for Vietnam and 8-10% for Indonesia).
In the meantime,
potential M&A opportunities, including retail property acquisitions, will
enhance the future earnings outlook.
Change to Forecasts
The slower sales
growth in 3Q12 has dragged down the year-to-date performance, and only reaches
71% of our forecast, which is lower than the traditional nine-month contribution of about 80% to the
full-year results. This was mainly due
to the weaker macro economy in China. Thus, we are cutting the sales forecast
from China by 9% and 16%.
As a result, we are
revising down our earnings estimate by 8% and 15% respectively for FY12-13E to
RM389m and RM423m (from RM421m and RM496m previously).
Rating MAINTAIN OUTPERFORM
Source: Kenanga
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